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Spot steel price fell more than 100 yuan per week, steel city winter is really coming!
This week, the domestic steel market as a whole showed a downward trend. As of November 16, 2018, the comprehensive price index of Langer Steel reached 162.2 points, down 2.54% from the same period last week and 4.38% from the same period last month; the price index of long steel reached 183.5 points, down 2.7% from the same period last week and 2.85% from the same period last month; and the price index of sheet steel reached 142.8 points, down 2.55% from the same period last weekend and 6.15% from the same period last month. .
The market continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but futures markets rebounded once as trade relations between China and the United States eased, new macroeconomic data moderated and improved, environmental policies to limit production piled up around the world and sudden inspections in fog and haze.
However, it is mainly reflected in the rising of the futures price, the rebound of spot billet price except for the overshoot, the price of finished products has not shown a prominent performance, and the negative decline pattern continues. With the release of the new inventory data, factory warehouse increases, social warehouse decreases, and the decline of social warehouse continues to narrow, the market pessimistic expectations rebound, and future and present prices oscillate again lower.
structural steel
Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 459 yuan, down 118 yuan from last Friday and 86 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4750 yuan, down 119 yuan from last Friday and 144 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China had reached 3.5458 million tons, down 11.76 million tons, or 3.21%, 29.24% from the same period last month, and 16.7% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform.
Board
As for the price of hot rolled coils, the monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 3891 yuan, 117 yuan lower than last Friday and 342 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 1.9623 million tons, down by 769,000 tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.78%, down by 5.35% from the same period last month and 7.9% from the same period last year.
As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 16, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4582 yuan, 134 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 265 yuan lower than the same period last month. As for inventory, as of November 16, cold rolled coil inventory in 24 key cities in China had reached 922,200 tons, which was 0.59% lower than last Friday, 9.38% lower than the same period last month and 8.86% higher than the same period last year.
As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 16, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 417 yuan, 92 yuan lower than last Friday and 221 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 10.161 million tons, which was 1.28% lower than last Friday, 7.57% lower than the same period last month and 4.04% higher than the same period last year.
Forecast
This week's domestic spot price performance is slightly different from the previous futures plunge, spot slightly different, early in the week, the current market showed a synchronous rapid decline, and the futures market in two failed counter-attacks last week, market sentiment is more sensitive. In the mid and late period, spot prices once deviated. With the relatively good macro data and industrial production restrictions, futures prices rebounded several times, but spot prices continued to decline. But eventually, at the end of the week, all roads lead to the same goal. How is the pace of market going?
I believe that the market sentiment is still relatively large. In the case of poor expectation, market inventory becomes the key direction of price. Once there is a slight change, it is amplified by the market. This week's new inventory data show that factory warehouses are increasing and social warehouses are still in the downward channel, but the slowdown is slower than before. Overall, crude steel production reached a record high of 82.55 million tons in October. The market is worried that prices will accelerate the decline in the context of seasonal shrinkage of demand. Businessmen in order to prevent the next continued decline, or even a big drop, run ahead of time to reduce prices, drop bags for peace of mind significantly increased.
But with such a high production volume, the social library still shows a continuous decline, indicating that demand is still acceptable. This has been reflected in the new macro data. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fixed assets investment increased by 5.7% from January to October, 0.3 points higher than the previous September; infrastructure investment increased by 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous September; construction area increased by 4.3%, accelerating by 0.4 points; new construction area increased by 16.3%, falling by 0.1 points; from the data point of view, the operation is good. In addition, the production is so high that there is the possibility of sudden production before the arrival of the heating season production limit, so it is not representative and needs to be observed.
According to the rhythm of the futures market this week, the decline of the futures market has slowed down significantly after the sharp fall, and there is an overshoot rebound. But at present, they are all in a dilemma. The overall market has little or no breakthrough. And some of the funds will be profitable, and low prices will begin to lay out. This makes short-term 1901 main contract shock will be more frequent. Therefore, the demand is concerned about the flow of capital.
In addition, with the arrival of all kinds of heavy news, the focus of the market has shifted to the formal implementation of the heating season production limit which began on Thursday. On November 16, 2018, among 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, 101 blast furnaces in 60 steel plants were repaired (including shutdown and stoving equipment, the same below), two more than last week (7 new blast furnaces were repaired this week, 5 blast furnaces were re-produced), and the volume of the repaired blast furnaces was 79920 cubic meters.
The market continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but futures markets rebounded once as trade relations between China and the United States eased, new macroeconomic data moderated and improved, environmental policies to limit production piled up around the world and sudden inspections in fog and haze.
However, it is mainly reflected in the rising of the futures price, the rebound of spot billet price except for the overshoot, the price of finished products has not shown a prominent performance, and the negative decline pattern continues. With the release of the new inventory data, factory warehouse increases, social warehouse decreases, and the decline of social warehouse continues to narrow, the market pessimistic expectations rebound, and future and present prices oscillate again lower.
structural steel
Specific spot prices, monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in 10 major cities in China was 459 yuan, down 118 yuan from last Friday and 86 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the average price of 6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 major cities in China was 4750 yuan, down 119 yuan from last Friday and 144 yuan from the same period last month. As of November 16, the social stock of construction steel in 29 key cities in China had reached 3.5458 million tons, down 11.76 million tons, or 3.21%, 29.24% from the same period last month, and 16.7% from the same period last year, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform.
Board
As for the price of hot rolled coils, the monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 3891 yuan, 117 yuan lower than last Friday and 342 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 1.9623 million tons, down by 769,000 tons from last Friday, a margin of 3.78%, down by 5.35% from the same period last month and 7.9% from the same period last year.
As for the price of cold rolled coils, as of November 16, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4582 yuan, 134 yuan lower than last Friday's price and 265 yuan lower than the same period last month. As for inventory, as of November 16, cold rolled coil inventory in 24 key cities in China had reached 922,200 tons, which was 0.59% lower than last Friday, 9.38% lower than the same period last month and 8.86% higher than the same period last year.
As for the price of medium and heavy plate, as of November 16, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 417 yuan, 92 yuan lower than last Friday and 221 yuan lower than the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of November 16, the total inventory of medium and heavy rolls in 29 key cities in China had reached 10.161 million tons, which was 1.28% lower than last Friday, 7.57% lower than the same period last month and 4.04% higher than the same period last year.
Forecast
This week's domestic spot price performance is slightly different from the previous futures plunge, spot slightly different, early in the week, the current market showed a synchronous rapid decline, and the futures market in two failed counter-attacks last week, market sentiment is more sensitive. In the mid and late period, spot prices once deviated. With the relatively good macro data and industrial production restrictions, futures prices rebounded several times, but spot prices continued to decline. But eventually, at the end of the week, all roads lead to the same goal. How is the pace of market going?
I believe that the market sentiment is still relatively large. In the case of poor expectation, market inventory becomes the key direction of price. Once there is a slight change, it is amplified by the market. This week's new inventory data show that factory warehouses are increasing and social warehouses are still in the downward channel, but the slowdown is slower than before. Overall, crude steel production reached a record high of 82.55 million tons in October. The market is worried that prices will accelerate the decline in the context of seasonal shrinkage of demand. Businessmen in order to prevent the next continued decline, or even a big drop, run ahead of time to reduce prices, drop bags for peace of mind significantly increased.
But with such a high production volume, the social library still shows a continuous decline, indicating that demand is still acceptable. This has been reflected in the new macro data. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fixed assets investment increased by 5.7% from January to October, 0.3 points higher than the previous September; infrastructure investment increased by 3.7%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous September; construction area increased by 4.3%, accelerating by 0.4 points; new construction area increased by 16.3%, falling by 0.1 points; from the data point of view, the operation is good. In addition, the production is so high that there is the possibility of sudden production before the arrival of the heating season production limit, so it is not representative and needs to be observed.
According to the rhythm of the futures market this week, the decline of the futures market has slowed down significantly after the sharp fall, and there is an overshoot rebound. But at present, they are all in a dilemma. The overall market has little or no breakthrough. And some of the funds will be profitable, and low prices will begin to lay out. This makes short-term 1901 main contract shock will be more frequent. Therefore, the demand is concerned about the flow of capital.
In addition, with the arrival of all kinds of heavy news, the focus of the market has shifted to the formal implementation of the heating season production limit which began on Thursday. On November 16, 2018, among 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Cloud Business Platform, 101 blast furnaces in 60 steel plants were repaired (including shutdown and stoving equipment, the same below), two more than last week (7 new blast furnaces were repaired this week, 5 blast furnaces were re-produced), and the volume of the repaired blast furnaces was 79920 cubic meters.
